There are some sharp minds writing articles for college football these days, but sometimes it’s good to take an old guy’s perspective into account because we’ve not only learned history and trends but seen them with our own eyes. That said, here’s one of the oldest sportswriter’s take on the upcoming Rose Bowl where Michigan takes on Alabama.
These are not historians or old men playing this game, they were born on average, 20 years ago or so, therefore history to them is limited to what they’ve seen with their own eyes or things that have happened in their lifetime, so let’s start there.
In these player’s lifetime, Michigan and Alabama have only played twice, both with disastrous losses to Michigan. The first was the 2012 game in Arlington, Texas where Alabama absolutely stomped them into the ground with the final score 41-14 Alabama. I remember that game and it could have been worse. Michigan looked like a high school team playing a college team.
The second game was just a few seasons ago in 2020 where the Tide once again spanked the Wolverines by a score of 35-16. Once again, Bama played the entire bench and let the majority of the team enjoy playing in a bowl game or it could have been worse.
The other thing that these players remember from their lifetime of the last 20 years or so is Alabama’s dominance over other teams from the Big Ten in general. Perception does stick in the minds of young men, and the lifetime perception of Alabama most always makes teams from their conference, the Big 10, their bitches in blowout losses. Only once in their lifetime did a Big Ten team beat Bama in a big bowl or title game and it wasn’t their team that did it.
I remember when Michigan State had a great year and many thought they would have a chance to upset the Tide. Kirk Cousins was at the top of his game, and the hopes of the Big Ten were with Michigan State. Alabama was going to finally be taught a lesson. Cousins couldn’t finish the first half, he was beaten in the dirt time and time again, then Bama beat down the second-string quarterback and they ended up playing a receiver at quarterback to finish the game. I was in the press box that day and after the game when we interviewed Kirk Cousins, he hardly could answer questions. It was a pitiful 49-7 thrashing in the 2011 Capital One Bowl at the Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando, Fla.
Say what you will, but these things are in the back of their minds going into this game whether they’d ever admit it or not. In their lifetimes, Bama just doesn’t beat Big Ten teams, they beat the hell out of them. I forget the coach who once was quoted as saying, “Those Crimson jerseys are worth 14 points when they just walk out on the field. Whether you admit it or not, that’s how intimidating they are.”
I saw the looks on the faces of Michigan’s players when the announcement came from the playoff committee that Alabama got into the playoffs and would be playing Michigan. There was an audible and collective groan and a lot of “Oh shit!” looks on lots of faces of the Michigan players. Many on television and in print say the same thing, so it’s not my opinion alone.
So while the actual stats are not the tell-all many think, the stats were mostly from each of their own conferences, and most would agree that top to bottom, the SEC is a tougher conference. But then, that is a debatable issue.
What is not debatable, is history. One team has a history of stepping up and shining bright in big games and post-season play and one does not. The question is, how much weight does that history put on the backs of the players of each team? I’m saying it places some on both teams.
Michigan feels it has a stronger run defense than Alabama and can force Alabama to be more one-dimensional. However, teams that have tried to force Jalen Milroe to beat them with his arm have been beaten by his arm. Milroe has evolved into one of the best deep-threat passers in college football.
Statistically, Michigan has a pass defense that is also better rated than Alabama’s. Michigan feels confident that they can hold Alabama’s offensive output and scores to levels that can be surpassed by their own offense. However, Alabama may be one of the hardest teams to try and make one-dimensional.
Further, Michigan sees itself as a much more disciplined team, they commit less than 3 penalties per game while Alabama is guilty of twice that number. In this, they are of course correct. As for other perceived advantages over Alabama, that’s all they are, perceived advantages.
Stats don’t tell the true story of anything unless you take into account against whom those stats were accumulated. As far as the strength of the schedule goes, according to sportsbettingdime.com, as of the latest games played, Alabama had the 3rd hardest schedule in football. Michigan’s schedule only rates as the 47th toughest. So factoring that into the equation of Michigan’s perceived advantages, one can only surmise that good statistics are easy to be skewed when you play poorer competition.
No sports ranking service such as ESPN, CBS Sports, or anyone have the Big Ten as a conference ranked above the SEC in any power ranking category. The Big Ten is top-heavy with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State doing well with the rest of the conference really lacking. In contrast, Kentucky, the SEC’s number 8 team in power rankings defeated the ACC’s championship game contender Louisville.
Therefore, except for committing fewer penalties, no clear advantage for Michigan can be found. It also shows that, just like Georgia, who also had a worse strength of schedule, Michigan’s team has not been forged in the same fire as Alabama and will wilt as the game progresses.
Lastly, as the game progresses no coach has shown the ability to make adjustments on the fly and adapt his team to overcome like Nick Saban. That’s why Alabama time and time again has shown the ability to come back from being down and pull away from teams who were either ahead or keeping it close early in the game.
Offense, defense, special teams, coaching, and depth of squad all favor Alabama. History, momentum, and confidence all favor Alabama. Though I rarely predict an exact score, I am very good at it when I do. So for the sake of a new year’s present, this old man who has been there and seen a lot in all these years sees a game where either Alabama has a 31-20 victory over Michigan or a score as high as a 34 -17 beatdown.
Larry Burton is a semi-retired writer who has written for over 25 years and has been published in almost every leading media.